All eyes are on Thursday’s Dussehra rally to be held by Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray in Mumbai. The buzz is that some kind of reunion, if not an alliance, may be announced between Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and his estranged cousin Raj Thackeray’s party, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).

Will this actually happen, or is it only a rumour? And if such a reunion or alliance is announced, will it be limited to Mumbai municipal polls, or will it cover the entire state of Maharashtra? These are questions on the minds of many followers of the Thackeray cousins, especially since, less than 24 hours before the Dussehra rally, little has been revealed.

One thing is certain: many new political equations could be set across Maharashtra if the Thackeray cousins announce some kind of alliance for the forthcoming civic polls. The possible reunion may alter prospects significantly, especially in the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), Asia’s richest civic body.

In the last civic polls, there was a close contest between the BJP and Shiv Sena. The saffron partners had been in alliance for over two and a half decades but fought a bitter battle, with Uddhav Thackeray’s faction emerging with a slight edge to form the government in the BMC.

The next elections were due in 2022 but were delayed mainly because of disputes over reservation for certain categories of candidates. Now, finally, the polls are scheduled, and for Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, this is truly a ‘make or break’ battle.

The BJP has been very alert, keenly watching developments between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. Raj Thackeray’s political stance has been notably unpredictable; at times he has extended support to the BJP in his speeches, while at other times he has sharply criticised it. In the 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly polls, Raj targeted the BJP and sided with Sharad Pawar and other opposition partners, but for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, he openly announced unconditional support for Narendra Modi-led BJP.

BJP insiders have been discussing various options in conventions in Mumbai and Pune to handle the situation if Uddhav and Raj form an alliance for the Mumbai and Thane municipal polls. Most believe the alliance, if any, will be limited to Mumbai and Thane, with seat-sharing deals possible, while other municipal corporations like Pune, Navi Mumbai, and Nashik may remain unaffected.

Such a development would subtly change dynamics within the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. Firstly, the BJP would likely recalibrate its relationship with Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Currently sidelined, Shinde could be empowered as the BJP perceives the Uddhav-Raj alliance as a significant political threat. The Mumbai municipal polls have become a matter of prestige for the BJP, which is expected to go all out to secure a majority in the BMC, partnering closely with Shinde.

Secondly, the BJP is expected to value its current partners more. If Uddhav and Raj unite, the BJP may ease its approach toward Ajit Pawar’s NCP in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporations (PCMC), while giving more prominence to Shinde in Thane and Navi Mumbai.

Thirdly, the BJP-led Mahayuti might intensify efforts to attract second- or third-tier leaders from the Thackeray-led parties to cross over to the BJP alliance across various cities in Maharashtra. Such political maneuvering reminiscent of the past “Operation Kamal” could impact outcomes significantly.

The potential Uddhav-Raj reunion also raises questions about how Uddhav’s current partners — Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP — will respond. The Congress is likely to feel uneasy about the MNS coming closer to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, shifting the balance of power in the state.

How the MVA reacts to this new political alignment could lead to broader changes in Maharashtra’s political landscape.

To summarise, the upcoming Dussehra rally could redefine Maharashtra’s political equations. It will be fascinating to observe how events unfold post-announcement.

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*Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist with 31 years of experience, having worked with leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.*
https://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/all-eyes-on-thackeray-cousins-dussehra-rally-possible-shiv-sena-mns-reunion-could-shake-up-maharashtra-politics