**China to Impose New Value-Added Tax on Contraceptives Amid Population Concerns**

China will soon begin collecting a value-added tax (VAT) on contraceptive drugs and products for the first time in over three decades. This new policy, set to take effect on January 1, 2025, aligns with Beijing’s latest efforts to encourage families to have more children after decades of restricting births through the one-child policy.

According to China’s newest VAT law, “contraceptive drugs and products” will no longer be tax-exempt. Products such as condoms will face the standard 13% VAT imposed on most goods. While the change has not been widely publicized by state-run news outlets, it has become a trending topic on Chinese social media, where many have reacted with ridicule. Some joked that raising a child would remain far costlier than using taxed condoms.

More seriously, experts and health advocates have expressed concerns that higher costs for contraceptives could lead to an increase in unplanned pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). “Higher prices may reduce access to contraceptives among economically disadvantaged populations, potentially leading to increases in unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections. Those outcomes could, in turn, lead to more abortions and higher health-care costs,” said Qian Cai, director of the Demographics Research Group at the University of Virginia.

**A Shift in Family Planning Policy**

China’s infamous one-child policy was strictly enforced from around 1980 until 2015, with huge fines, other penalties, and in some cases, forced abortions. Some children born beyond the quota were deprived of identification numbers, effectively rendering them non-citizens.

In 2015, the government raised the birth limit to two children, and as the population began to decline, this was raised again to three children in 2021. Contradictorily, contraception has long been actively promoted and widely accessible—sometimes for free—during the era of population control.

Now, with birth rates continuing to fall, the government is taking new measures to reverse the trend. In 2024, only 9.5 million babies were born in China, a steep drop compared to the 14.7 million born in 2019, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This occurred despite higher-than-usual birth rates inspired by the auspicious Year of the Dragon, according to Chinese astrology. Meanwhile, deaths have outpaced births, and in 2023 India overtook China as the world’s most populous country.

**Public and Expert Reactions**

The policy has sparked public debate and sharp criticism, especially among women, who overwhelmingly bear the responsibility for birth control in China. “That’s a really ruthless move,” said Hu Lingling, mother of a five-year-old who said she is determined not to have another child. “It is also hilarious, especially compared to forced abortions during the family planning era,” she added.

Zou Xuan, a 32-year-old teacher in Pingxiang, Jiangxi province, commented, “It is a disciplinary tactic, a management of women’s bodies and my sexual desire.” For many, the move is an unwelcome reminder of the government’s long history of intervening in personal and reproductive choices.

Experts believe the new tax is unlikely to meaningfully increase birth rates. “For couples who do not want children or do not want additional children, a 13% tax on contraceptives is unlikely to influence their reproductive decisions, especially when weighed against the far higher costs of raising a child,” said Qian Cai.

Meanwhile, Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, described the move as “only logical,” noting, “They used to control the population, but now they are encouraging people to have more babies; it is a return to normal methods to make these products ordinary commodities.”

**Impact on Contraceptive Use and Public Health**

Condoms are used by only 9% of couples in China, with 44.2% relying on intrauterine devices and 30.5% on female sterilization, according to research by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in 2022. The rest use the pill or other methods.

Estimates of China’s annual condom consumption vary. A report from IndexBox, an international market intelligence platform, stated that China consumed 5.4 billion units of condoms in 2020—a figure representing 11 consecutive years of growth.

Many experts fear that reduced access to contraceptives due to price increases could worsen public health outcomes. China has one of the world’s highest numbers of abortions, with 9 to 10 million performed annually between 2014 and 2021, according to the National Health Commission. The actual number might be higher, as some seek treatment at underground clinics. Official abortion data has not been published since 2022.

Sexually transmitted infections are also on the rise. In 2024, there were more than 100,000 new cases of gonorrhea and 670,000 cases of syphilis, according to the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS continues to increase as well, especially among older Chinese, reaching about 1.4 million in 2024.

**Looking Forward**

As China faces declining birth rates and a rapidly aging population, the government’s efforts to influence reproductive decisions remain controversial. While the new tax on contraceptives may align with broader policy shifts, experts warn that it could ultimately lead to more unplanned pregnancies, greater health risks, and higher societal costs—without achieving the desired population growth.
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