**Bitcoin Wraps Up First Red October in Seven Years Amid Mixed Signals — But November Brings Optimism**
For the first time in seven years, Bitcoin has closed out an October in the red. The leading cryptocurrency slipped 3.69% during the month, marking its worst October since 2018 — a rare departure from its historically bullish Q4 trend.
Back in 2018, Bitcoin’s red October was followed by a brutal November crash that saw prices plunge 36%. By year’s end, BTC had fallen nearly 85% from its all-time high. But this time, the backdrop looks very different.
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### October Ends Weak, But November Hope Builds
Bitcoin’s mild October decline came amid mixed macroeconomic conditions, including rising Treasury yields, uncertainty over US rate cuts, and lower on-chain activity. Yet even as prices softened, long-term holders were quietly accumulating.
With November here, sentiment may be ready to flip. Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month, boasting an average gain of 42.5% over the past decade. If this pattern holds, a 42% increase from current levels would push BTC near $160,000 — a staggering recovery and new record high.
It’s no surprise that despite the short-term red candle, optimism is building again among traders and analysts.
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### Whales Bought $5.7 Billion in October
Behind the scenes, “whales” — large holders controlling between 10 and 10,000 BTC — have been buying aggressively. According to Santiment, these wallets added roughly $5.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in October alone.
They now hold 13.68 million BTC, representing about 68.6% of total supply. This wave of accumulation signals that deep-pocketed investors are positioning ahead of what many expect to be Bitcoin’s next major uptrend.
“Smart money isn’t waiting for confirmation,” one analyst noted. “They’re front-running the next leg up.”
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### Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Conviction
Despite the recent red candle, market structure remains largely bullish. Bitcoin has consolidated around the $95,000 range after hitting record highs earlier in the year.
Retail sentiment, however, has cooled. Social data shows engagement and mentions for BTC trending lower — a setup that often precedes major rebounds.
Whale data supports this view. These entities were net accumulators before Bitcoin’s last breakout, stacking over 110,000 BTC between August 22 and October 12 before trimming around 23,200 BTC recently. Even with that minor sell-off, their overall holdings remain near record highs — a sign of conviction.
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### Why This October Was Different
In past years, October earned the nickname “Uptober” for its tendency to deliver strong returns. For example, 2020 and 2021 saw Bitcoin climb double digits each time, driven by liquidity inflows and ETF speculation.
This year, however, global uncertainty weighed on risk assets. The US dollar strengthened, and spot ETF flows slowed as institutional investors paused new allocations. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s volatility fell to multi-month lows — a sign of compression that often precedes explosive moves.
The combination of reduced retail euphoria and quiet whale accumulation has set the stage for a potential rebound as liquidity rotates back into crypto.
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### November’s Bullish History
If there’s one month Bitcoin bulls love, it’s November. Over the past 11 years, BTC has finished November in the green eight times, averaging 42.5% gains.
This performance includes legendary rallies like November 2020, when Bitcoin surged 43% to break past $19,000, and November 2013, when it soared 450% in a single month.
Even in bearish years, November tends to bring relief. In 2022, BTC still managed a modest rebound after the FTX collapse.
Given this track record, traders see the latest dip less as a breakdown and more as a setup for what could be another historic month.
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### Market Sentiment: Fear or Opportunity?
According to Santiment’s social sentiment data, discussions around Bitcoin have cooled, while altcoin chatter has increased. Historically, this rotation occurs when retail traders lose focus — often right before BTC reclaims dominance.
The Fear & Greed Index has also drifted toward “neutral” after months in “greed” territory, suggesting a potential bottoming of short-term sentiment.
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### What to Watch in November
The next few weeks could prove pivotal. Traders are closely monitoring three catalysts:
1. **ETF Flows**
Any uptick in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows could spark renewed institutional demand.
2. **US Macro Data**
Inflation and rate expectations continue to influence Bitcoin’s correlation with equities.
3. **On-Chain Accumulation**
Sustained whale and long-term holder buying could confirm a market floor.
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### The Bigger Picture
Zooming out, October’s red candle may be more psychological than structural. Bitcoin remains one of the best-performing assets of 2025, up over 90% year-to-date despite short-term pullbacks.
The long-term fundamentals haven’t changed: limited supply, increasing institutional participation, and a growing on-chain base.
So while 2025’s “Uptober” didn’t go according to script, “Movember” might just live up to the hype.
Bitcoin’s first red October since 2018 is a reminder that bull markets don’t move in straight lines. But history and on-chain data suggest the pause may be temporary. With whales adding billions, volatility at record lows, and November’s historical tailwinds, the setup for the next leg higher looks strong.
As the saying goes: **“Weak hands panic in red months. Strong hands buy them.”** Right now, the strong hands seem very busy.
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*Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.*
https://nulltx.com/bitcoin-ends-october-in-the-red-for-the-first-time-since-2018/