Tag Archives: bitcoin

Bitcoin Treasury Bubble About To Burst, Say 10x Research

For months, investors believed that buying shares in Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet was the smarter, safer way to gain exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency. It felt like a shortcut to Bitcoin profits — until the Bitcoin treasury bubble burst.

According to a new report by 10x Research, retail investors have lost over $17 billion chasing these so-called “Bitcoin treasury” stocks. Surprisingly, the crash didn’t come from a fall in Bitcoin’s price, but from something far more painful.

### Sky-High Premiums Come Crashing Down

During 2024 and early 2025, excitement around Bitcoin’s institutional adoption reached its peak. Investors were paying 3 to 4 times their net asset value (NAV) just to own shares in Bitcoin-holding companies. These stocks were treated like leveraged bets on crypto’s future.

However, as global markets cooled and trade tensions between the US and China added uncertainty, these inflated valuations couldn’t hold. Multiples collapsed to around 1.0–1.4× NAV, wiping out billions in shareholder value — even while Bitcoin’s price remained near record highs.

Overall, 10x Research estimates that around $20 billion was overpaid, highlighting the steep cost of chasing hype over real assets.

### Metaplanet & MicroStrategy Struggle Too

Metaplanet, once dubbed “Asia’s MicroStrategy,” stopped buying Bitcoin in early October after its share price plunged nearly 47% in just three weeks. This decline pushed its enterprise value below the worth of its BTC holdings. The company alone lost $4.9 billion from its peak.

MicroStrategy wasn’t spared either. Its premium sharply fell from 4× to 1.4× NAV, demonstrating how even established players felt the squeeze.

### How Investors Lost Big

10x Research calls this the end of the “financial magic.” These treasury firms, once celebrated for their bold Bitcoin strategies, now face mounting pressure to prove real value through lending, custody, or arbitrage services.

The crash boiled down to simple math: these companies bought Bitcoin with stock or debt at inflated prices. When valuations cooled, investors who bought at the peak faced losses of about 67% compared to holding Bitcoin directly.

As a result, many investors are shifting to spot Bitcoin ETFs or direct Bitcoin holdings, where transparency is clearer and premiums don’t erode returns.

### What’s Next?

10x Research further warns that the premium collapse could erase an additional $25-30 billion in value by year-end, striking another heavy blow to speculative Bitcoin capital.

To survive, firms must now achieve 15-20% returns through real-yield strategies — or risk collapse.

Investors looking for cryptocurrency exposure should consider the lessons from this episode carefully: chasing inflated premiums on Bitcoin treasury stocks carries significant risks, especially when underlying asset prices remain stable. Direct ownership or transparent ETFs may offer safer alternatives moving forward.
https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-treasury-bubble-about-to-burst-say-10x-research/

Bitcoin Whale Who Nailed The Crash Is Now Losing Big: $10M in The Red On BTC And ETH Longs

Bitcoin continues to struggle under bearish pressure following last Friday’s sharp market drop, with traders still reeling from one of the most volatile weeks in months. While BTC battles to hold above the $105K-$106K zone, gold has surged to new all-time highs, signaling growing uncertainty in global markets.

This divergence between traditional safe havens and risk assets has left investors questioning what the macro signal truly implies: whether it’s a sign of deeper economic fragility or a temporary rotation of capital.

Amid this cautious environment, an intriguing move by a well-known whale has caught market attention. The trader famous for shorting both BTC and ETH during last week’s crash on Hyperliquid is now flipping long, opening massive leveraged positions on the same assets he profited from shorting. The whale’s actions have fueled speculation about a potential short-term rebound.

Some analysts suggest this could mark the beginning of market maker accumulation, especially as funding rates reset and liquidity normalizes. Still, with Bitcoin showing technical weakness and macro headwinds intensifying, traders remain divided: is this whale betting on an early reversal, or simply preparing for another volatility-driven shakeout before the next major move?

### Whale Doubles Down Despite Unrealized Loss

According to Lookonchain insights, the well-known whale (0xc2a3) is now facing a dramatic reversal of fortune. After flipping his strategy and opening massive long positions on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, the trader has seen his previous $5.5 million profit completely erased, now sitting on a net loss of $4.69 million.

Despite this, on-chain data shows he’s continuing to add to his BTC longs, signaling a high-conviction or high-risk bet on an imminent market rebound.

At present, the whale’s positions amount to 1,260 BTC (≈$132.5 million) and 19,894 ETH (≈$74.4 million). These are some of the largest open positions on Hyperliquid, drawing intense scrutiny from traders and analysts alike.

Some speculate that his aggressive accumulation indicates insider confidence or a strategic long-term view, while others warn it may simply reflect overleveraged optimism amid a deteriorating market structure.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price continues to drift toward range lows, hovering just above $105K, where short-term holder realized prices and major moving averages converge. The sustained selling pressure across exchanges and persistent bearish sentiment suggest that the market has yet to find a solid floor.

Still, the whale’s behavior has introduced renewed debate about whether smart money is positioning early ahead of a recovery or misjudging a still-fragile market. If his conviction proves right and BTC stabilizes, this could mark a key accumulation phase before the next leg up. But if not, the losses could deepen further, reaffirming just how volatile and unpredictable Bitcoin’s macro landscape remains.

### Bitcoin Faces Weekly Breakdown As Volume Surges

Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals a decisive shift in momentum, with price closing near $105,800 after a steep -8% decline for the week. The correction has erased multiple weeks of gains, pushing BTC dangerously close to the 50-week moving average (MA50), currently around $101,700 — a level that has historically acted as strong support during mid-cycle consolidations.

What stands out most in this chart is the sharp increase in trading volume, the highest since late 2023, confirming that the latest sell-off has been driven by significant market participation.

The large red volume bar indicates broad capitulation among short-term holders, aligning with on-chain data showing increased realized losses and elevated selling pressure across exchanges.

If Bitcoin manages to hold above the $103K-$106K range and defend the MA50, the structure could remain within a broader bullish continuation pattern. However, a confirmed weekly close below this support would likely trigger a deeper retracement toward $100K or even $97K, where the 100-week MA currently lies.

*Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com.*
https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-whale-nailed-crash-now-losing-10m-in-red/

Weekend Crypto Meltdown: What Happened and Why

**Historic $19 Billion Crypto Liquidation Rocks Markets Over Weekend of October 10-11, 2025**

Over the weekend of October 10-11, 2025, the cryptocurrency market faced its biggest liquidation event in history. Approximately US$19 billion worth of leveraged trading positions were wiped out within just 24 hours, impacting over 1.6 million traders worldwide.

To put this into perspective, this crash ranks alongside previous infamous events such as the COVID-19 market crash of March 2020 and the FTX collapse. This is a significant moment in crypto history — one that we’ll still be discussing years from now. So, let’s unpack what happened over that turbulent weekend so you can keep up with your crypto mates.

### What Does Liquidation Mean?

Before diving deeper, it’s important to note that in the UK, leverage tied to cryptoassets is not permitted. This explanation focuses on what traders abroad—particularly in the USA—are doing that affects Bitcoin’s price globally.

Imagine a USA-based investor wants to buy Bitcoin because they believe its price will rise. They have $100 of their own money but seek to buy more Bitcoin than that would normally allow. They use a crypto trading platform offering loans and borrow $900 more, enabling them to purchase $1,000 worth of Bitcoin. This is called **10x leverage** — controlling ten times more money than they actually own.

The platform agrees, but with a crucial condition:
*“If Bitcoin’s price starts dropping, we’ll automatically sell the investor’s Bitcoin before losses get too large.”*

When things go wrong and Bitcoin’s price drops by 10%, the investor’s $1,000 position is now worth only $900. Since they borrowed $900 and only had $100 of their own money, they have lost everything they invested.

The platform steps in and says:
*“We need to protect our $900. We’re selling your position right now.”*

This forced automatic sale is called a **liquidation**.

**The Result:**
– The investor loses their entire $100 — it’s completely gone.
– The platform recovers their $900 by selling the investor’s position.
– Typically, the platform doesn’t lose money.

### The Chain Reaction

Now, imagine millions of traders in similar situations with billions of dollars at stake. When the market starts dropping, it triggers a devastating chain reaction:
1. Prices begin to fall.
2. Thousands of leveraged positions hit their liquidation thresholds.
3. Platforms automatically sell assets to recover loans.
4. This massive selling pushes prices down even further.
5. More liquidations get triggered.
6. The cycle keeps snowballing downhill.

Unfortunately, the severity of such a crash means some traders can lose everything — sometimes even ending up “moving in with their weird uncle” after suffering total losses.

### What Triggered This Crash?

The immediate catalyst was geopolitical. On October 10, 2025, President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports effective November 1, 2025, alongside export controls on critical software.

Although cryptocurrency is often considered independent of traditional finance, it behaves similarly to a high-risk tech investment. When Trump announced these massive tariffs, investors feared an escalating US-China economic conflict.

As a result:
– Investors sold risky assets such as stocks and crypto.
– They moved toward safer havens like cash, gold, and bonds.
– Crypto prices plunged sharply.
– Leveraged traders began getting liquidated.
– Liquidations accelerated price drops even more.

Markets inherently dislike uncertainty, and a trade war between the world’s two largest economies creates enormous doubt about global economic growth — exacerbating the crypto crash.

### The Scale of Destruction

– **Total liquidations:** Over US$19 billion in 24 hours
– **Traders affected:** 1,618,240 people
– **Long positions liquidated:** US$16.7 billion (bets on prices going up)
– **Bitcoin liquidations:** US$1.37 billion
– **Ethereum liquidations:** US$1.26 billion
– **Largest single trade wiped out:** US$87.53 million on one Bitcoin trade

### How Leverage Works When Things Go Right

Leverage can amplify profits — here’s a winning example for a USA-based trader:

– Using $100 of their own money and borrowing $900 (10x leverage), they buy $1,000 worth of Bitcoin.
– If Bitcoin rises 10%, their position grows to $1,100.
– After repaying the $900 loan (plus small fees), they keep $200 — doubling their initial $100 investment.

A small move in price can lead to enormous gains.

### Leverage When Things Go Wrong

But leverage cuts both ways. The more leverage you use, the faster you can get liquidated:

| Leverage | Own Money | Borrowed | Total Position | Price Drop to Liquidation | Result |
|———-|———–|———-|—————-|————————–|———————————|
| 10x | $100 | $900 | $1,000 | 10% | Lose entire $100, position liquidated |
| 5x | $100 | $400 | $500 | 20% | Lose entire $100, position liquidated |
| 2x | $100 | $100 | $200 | 50% | Lose entire $100, position liquidated |

### Who Actually Loses Money?

The trader who uses leverage loses their entire collateral — the money they put in. Most of the time, that’s the only party losing real money.

Exchanges and lending platforms generally don’t lose money because they automatically liquidate positions before losses exceed collateral. They also maintain insurance funds for extreme cases, such as rapid price crashes where selling speed can’t keep up. However, these situations are rare.

The system prioritizes protecting the lender over the trader.

### Where We Are Now

Just days before this crash, Bitcoin had been soaring, pushing past $125,000 and setting new all-time highs. The rally was fueled by strong institutional investment through ETFs in the USA and rising concerns about traditional currency devaluation.

As of Monday morning, October 13, 2025:
– Bitcoin is trading around $115,000.
– Ethereum has recovered from approximately $3,400 to about $4,100.

The market is catching its breath after the violent weekend selloff.

If confidence returns, traders may see current prices as a buying opportunity. But if bad news or trade tensions escalate, selling could continue.

There could be sideways movement or a period of relative stability as the market digests recent news. Of course, with crypto’s famous volatility, anything can happen.

### What We Have Learned

For those new to crypto volatility, this weekend taught us several key lessons:

– **Leverage trading lets traders control far more money than they actually own, but it’s extremely risky.**
– There’s potential for high rewards, but equally high risks — you have to ask yourself how much risk you can live with (or how comfortable you’d be moving in with your weird uncle).
– Even a small price drop can wipe out an entire leveraged investment.
– Despite claims of independence, crypto behaves very much like a high-risk asset tied to traditional market sentiments.
– Leverage trading is like flooring the accelerator pedal in an electric vehicle: you can take off fast, but one wrong move might mean costly crash repairs.
– What traders do overseas, especially USA-based leveraged traders, influences crypto prices worldwide — affecting all traders, even those in countries like the UK where leveraged crypto trading is banned.

**Stay informed, trade carefully, and always understand the risks before using leverage in cryptocurrency markets.**
https://blog.coinjar.com/weekend-crypto-meltdown-what-happened-and-why-2/