The southwest monsoon 2025 commenced its withdrawal by mid-September. It is now time to evaluate its performance and examine the harvest prospects of key crops across the country.
### Rainfall Overview
The good news is that, as forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India has enjoyed above-normal rainfall this season. Between June 1 and September 27, the country received 922 mm of rainfall, which is 8 percent above the normal level.
However, the distribution of rainfall was uneven. While east and northeast India—mainly Bihar and Assam—suffered a 19 percent rainfall deficiency, the northwest regions, primarily Punjab and Rajasthan, experienced a 28 percent surplus. Central India received 13 percent above-normal rainfall, and the southern peninsula saw an 11 percent surplus.
### Impact on Agriculture
Although the total quantum of rainfall during the season is important, the temporal and spatial distribution is critical for agriculture. August and September witnessed excessive precipitation in some parts of the country such as Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Rajasthan. This has reportedly inflicted crop damage.
There have been reports regarding adverse impacts on paddy and pulse crops, but the full extent of damage is still under assessment. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that excessive rains have impacted crop quality.
Below is an assessment of the likely harvest size of key Kharif crops. The forecast production numbers are presented as ranges, with planted area data as of September 26.
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### Rice
The production target for rice this season is 123 million metric tonnes (MMT). The normal planted area, based on a five-year average, is 40.3 million hectares (ml ha). This year, the planted area was slightly higher at 44.2 ml ha, compared to last year’s 43.6 ml ha.
The rice crop is estimated to yield between 123 and 125 MMT, up from 121.8 MMT in 2024. Rice stocks in the country remain well above the buffer norm, and export restrictions have been lifted.
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### Maize
The production target for maize is 26 MMT. Planted area expanded significantly this season to 9.5 ml ha, up from 8.8 ml ha last year, following increased demand for ethanol production driven by the government’s biofuel blending programme.
The maize harvest is expected to be in the range of 26 to 27 MMT, higher than the 24.8 MMT produced during the last Kharif season.
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### Pulses
This protein-rich legume has faced challenges this year. The production target was reduced from 9.5 MMT in 2024 to 8.0 MMT in 2025. Planted area has also declined by one million hectares to 12.0 ml ha, down from a five-year average of 13 ml ha, as growers shifted to more remunerative crops like maize due to poor returns.
Despite satisfactory initial rains, excessive rainfall in August in pockets of Maharashtra and Karnataka damaged crops. Consequently, production is expected to decline to between 6.7 and 7.0 MMT, well below even the reduced target.
To augment availability and keep prices in check, imports of pigeon pea (tur/arhar) and black matpe (urad) have been allowed duty-free until March 2026.
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### Oilseeds
Key Kharif oilseeds include soybean and groundnut, along with smaller quantities of sesamum, niger seed, sunflower seed, and castor seed.
The soybean planted area has decreased to 12 ml ha this season, down one million hectares from last year. However, satisfactory rainfall over the soy belt in Madhya Pradesh, Vidharba in Maharashtra, and parts of Rajasthan is expected to result in decent yields.
Soybean production is forecasted between 12.0 and 12.5 MMT, falling significantly short of the 16.2 MMT target. It is widely recognized that the government’s 2024 estimate of 15.2 MMT was overstated by 15 to 20 percent. Effectively, soybean production has seen little change.
In the case of groundnut, the main growing region of Gujarat received excellent rainfall, likely leading to improved yields. The overall production size is projected to be between 11 and 12 MMT, higher than the target of 10.5 MMT and last Kharif’s 10.4 MMT.
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### Cotton
Cotton, a multipurpose crop used for fibre, food, and feed, has been losing acreage over the past three years. This season, the planted area has decreased to 11.0 ml ha, down from 11.3 ml ha last year and well below the five-year average of 12.9 ml ha.
Excessive rains in key cotton-growing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Punjab, coupled with pest infestations, have resulted in crop losses. The government revised the production target down from last year’s 35 million bales (170 kg each) to 33.5 million bales for 2025.
Despite this, the harvest is estimated to be between 29.5 and 30.5 million bales, falling short of even the reduced target. Last year, production stood at 30.7 million bales. Crop quality is also likely to be compromised.
India has now become a net importer of raw cotton, and free imports are allowed until December 31, 2025. For 2025-26, imports are forecast at 3.5 to 4.0 million bales.
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### Sugarcane
Sugarcane planted area has steadily expanded and stands at 5.9 ml ha for the 2025-26 sugar year, up from 5.7 ml ha last year and the five-year average of 5.2 ml ha.
Compared with the cane production target of 469 MMT and the 2024 production of 450 MMT, this year’s output could decline to between 440 and 460 MMT due to excessive rainfall in growing areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka.
The government has lifted the December 2023 restriction on diverting cane for ethanol production. After accounting for this diversion, sugar production in 2025-26 is likely to be around 30 MMT, slightly less than last year.
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### Looking Ahead
Rains continued in southern and western parts of the country through the end of September, potentially causing more damage and delaying damage assessments. However, the continuing rains are expected to improve soil moisture, benefiting the Rabi planting season, including major crops such as wheat, rapeseed/mustard, and chickpea, which typically commence in late October.
Reservoir storage levels are satisfactory and higher than last year’s, providing a positive outlook for irrigation.
Given the combined production prospects of Kharif crops, ample public stocks of wheat and rice with government agencies, and a liberal import policy for pulses and edible oil, the risk to food inflation is tilted not to the upside, but potentially to the downside.
If Rabi crop prospects prove satisfactory, food prices may remain consumer-friendly. Nevertheless, weather conditions in the coming months will be a critical factor to watch.
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**Note:** Except for the forecast of Kharif 2025 crop production (based on G. Chandrashekhar’s proprietary research), all data—including acreage, rainfall, and production targets—are official government figures.
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*G. Chandrashekhar is an economist, senior editor, and policy commentator specializing in agribusiness and commodity markets. The views expressed here are personal.*
https://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/indias-above-normal-monsoon-brings-mixed-fortunes-for-kharif-crops-excess-rainfall-damages-paddy-pulses-cotton