Clues for which team will win an NFL game can come from a variety of places. Sometimes it’s the injury report, where a team might have a cluster of problems at one position. Other times, there are motivational factors such as revenge—when a coach or player is going against a former team that he believes did him wrong.
A third factor is the schedule, and that’s where we’re focusing for our selection on the Giants-Broncos game on Sunday in Denver.
The Giants last played a week ago Thursday, when they doubled up the Eagles 34-17 behind a “We’re here!” performance by two rookies, QB Jaxson Dart and RB Cam Skattebo. The three extra days not only gave Giants players a chance to rest and heal, they also added a buffer before the next game, which could help prevent a letdown. That’s important because the team’s performance over the first six weeks was inconsistent: bad, decent, bad, good, terrible, and then great. If that pattern holds, some variant of bad is due.
On the other side of the spectrum are the Broncos, who played against the Jets last week in London. Teams that play overseas have the option of taking their bye the following week, but Denver chose to be off in Week 12 and will be the first team in the Mountain or Pacific time zones to attempt this kind of turnaround.
Another reason to like the Giants is that the spread (seven) is high while the total is low (40). In a game where points could be at a premium, a touchdown underdog is normally the preferred bet.
Also, kudos to Dart and Brian Daboll for not giving up on the passing game after Malik Nabers’ season-ending injury. Wan’Dale Robinson may now be WR1, and that’s not great, but his six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown versus the Eagles were solid. Lil’Jordan Humphrey’s four receptions for 55 yards were also commendable.
Meanwhile, the Broncos offense had big problems against the Jets, amassing just 246 yards, 12 first downs, and 13 points against a defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL.
**The pick: Giants +7**
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### Panthers (-1) over Jets
The Jets’ London trip parallels Denver’s, albeit 1,600 miles shorter. However, the Jets bring home bigger concerns: Can Aaron Glenn coach? Is Justin Fields afraid to throw? What will an offense that just was held to minus-10 passing yards (with nine sacks) do now that No. 1 receiver Garrett Wilson is out? The Jets already lacked a legitimate WR2.
I considered a contrarian selection hoping team leaders like Quinnen Williams, Breece Hall, and Sauce Gardner would say “enough” and lead the Jets to their first win. But the 3-3 Panthers, though far from elite and 0-3 on the road, feature a rushing threat in Rico Dowdle (389 yards in the past two games) and rookie Tetairoa McMillan is emerging as a nightmare at wide receiver.
After careful thought, the odds favor the Panthers.
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### Jaguars (+3) over Rams (in London)
The Jaguars play in England every season and are 7-6 straight up since 2013. This matchup looks like a defensive battle between two teams ranked in the top seven for points allowed per game. With the potential absence of Rams WR Puka Nacua (ankle), the full field goal spread might influence the outcome.
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### Chiefs (-12) over Raiders
The Chiefs welcome back WR Rashee Rice from a six-game suspension related to a multiple-car crash in 2024. He joins Xavier Worthy in potentially making this the most explosive offense Patrick Mahomes has ever led—especially if referees call very few penalties against them.
Geno Smith managed to keep it together last week, but a few mistakes at Arrowhead could widen the margin here.
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### Bears (-5) over Saints
The Bears have won three straight, coming off back-to-back road wins with identical scores of 25-24. Rookie coach Ben Johnson’s team appears to be improving each week.
Spencer Rattler has been okay for the Saints, but midweek injury concerns around Alvin Kamara (ankle) and Chris Olave (hip) make this matchup risky on the Saints’ side.
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### Dolphins (+2.5) over Browns
The Dolphins are an ugly 1-5 but have been scoring at least 21 points in each of their past five games, averaging 25.5 points per game during that span.
The Browns, meanwhile, have averaged just 13 points per game in Dillon Gabriel’s two starts—against the Vikings in London and at Pittsburgh. It’s tough to justify giving points to a Browns team with Gabriel at quarterback.
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### Patriots (-7) over Titans
The Brian Callahan era ended with a dismal 4-20-1 ATS record. Interim coach Mike McCoy faces a tough test against Mike Vrabel, who has revitalized the Patriots instantly. Expect the Patriots to step up. This is our **Lock of the Week**.
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### Eagles (-2) over Vikings
The Vikings quarterback situation is uncertain, with J. J. McCarthy (ankle) possibly replacing Carson Wentz (shoulder).
Meanwhile, the Eagles’ offense has appeared broken most of the season. With ten days to stew over an embarrassing loss to the Giants, expect the Eagles to show up ready this week.
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### Colts (+1.5) over Chargers
The Colts face a long trip, but the Chargers’ journey from Miami was even longer. LA’s defense has given up big rushing yards to the likes of Jacory Croskey-Merritt and De’Von Achane over the past two weeks.
Look for Jonathan Taylor and Daniel Jones to exploit the injury-depleted Chargers defense.
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### Cowboys (+2) over Commanders
The Commanders face a tough quick turnaround after a Monday night home loss to the Bears. Meanwhile, the Cowboys might get a boost from returning players including WRs CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin, and G Tyler Booker. That could significantly impact Dak Prescott’s performance.
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### Cardinals (+6.5) over Packers
The Cardinals are on a four-game losing streak, but the margins have been close: 1, 3, 1, and 4 points—all good enough to cover this spread.
Offensive injuries do temper enthusiasm for Arizona. Keep an eye on Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. updates. The Packers are 0-1-1 on the road and look somewhat stale to lay this number.
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### Falcons (+2) over 49ers
The Falcons travel cross-country after a marquee Monday night win over the Bills. Usually, that signals potential trouble, especially for those who have been burned by the Falcons before.
However, the 49ers also had a long trip from Tampa a day earlier and are decimated on defense, with Fred Warner joining Nick Bosa on IR. Ride the Bijan Robinson Express.
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### Monday Game: Buccaneers (+5.5) over Lions
Baker Mayfield might be a dark horse MVP after winning games without his top three receivers, starting running back, and much of his offensive line.
He still has Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, Rachaad White, and two guys named Johnson — plus a 5.5-point head start. Let’s go!
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### Texans (+3) over Seahawks
The Texans’ past two games were combined 70-10 demolitions of the Titans and Ravens, and they had a bye week to recover from western travel.
Houston ranks No. 1 by a wide margin, allowing just 12.2 points per game. Sam Darnold has performed solidly, but this defense could rattle him.
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## Best Bets:
– Patriots
– Panthers
– Giants
**Lock of the Week:** Patriots
*(Locks are 2-4 in 2025)*
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**Last Week:** 9-6 overall, 2-1 Best Bets
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https://nypost.com/2025/10/19/betting/nfl-week-7-predictions-best-bets-picks-against-the-spread-for-every-game/
