The behavior in global financial markets is a classic late-cycle characteristic and not a signal of an imminent recession, Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said in a Wednesday note, referring to a broad-based correction across equities, gold, and crypto markets. Bitcoin is trading flat over the past 24 hours at around $91,750, attempting a recovery after a brief dip below $90,000, according to CoinGecko data. The pullback was amplified by thinner liquidity and persistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, underscoring the asset’s sensitivity to macro shifts, Decrypt was told. “The reasons behind this round of broad-based asset corrections are highly consistent with tightening liquidity, a reversal in policy expectations, declining risk appetite, and valuation adjustments after excessive gains,” Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, told Decrypt. The rapid repricing of investors’ sentiment and expectations amid macro uncertainty is evident in the odds of a quarter-point rate cut, which dropped from over 60% a week ago to 32. 8% today, according to CME’s FedWatch tool data. On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, users put the chance of a 25bps rate cut in December at just 32%. Duration-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, as a result, have been hit hard, QCP analysts noted, highlighting crypto’s lagging performance even as equities benefit from strong corporate earnings. Equities, on the other hand, appear more resilient due to strong earnings from AI-based equities’ corporate capital expenditure and strong household balance sheets. “We believe the broader financial markets are firmly past the early-cycle phase,” Jyotsna Hirdyani, South Asia Head at Bitget, told Decrypt. She characterized the current environment as a “late-mid to early-late stage, where momentum is slowing, vulnerabilities are rising, and markets are more sensitive to macro shocks, but the classic recession markers are not flashing red yet.” The U. S. credit spreads have widened only slightly, and systemic stress remains limited, suggesting the current correction is a positioning shakeout rather than a fundamental breakdown, Sun explained, echoing QCP Capital’s take. Is the Bitcoin bottom in? Regarding Bitcoin’s trajectory, analysts see a bottoming process underway but caution against expecting a rapid V-shaped recovery. “Bitcoin’s bottoming process is primarily driven by liquidity, market sentiment, and the distribution of coin-holding,” the HashKey analyst said. “A weak rebound followed by range-bound bottom formation is the more probable scenario. A true trend reversal still requires stabilization in macro liquidity.” While structural metrics like exchange balances suggest underlying resilience, “confidence is limited because liquidity conditions remain fragile and macro sentiment is weak,” Hirdyani added, stating that confirmation of a durable bottom would require “higher lows, improving ETF and spot inflows, and clearer policy signals.” All eyes are now on the December FOMC meeting, which could provide the catalyst for a more sustained recovery if it delivers dovish language regarding the 2026 policy path. Investor sentiment remains muted, with Myriad users putting a 63% chance on Bitcoin’s next move taking it to $85,000 rather than $115,000.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/tech/markets-in-late-cycle-phase-not-recessionary-qcp/
Tag Archives: bitcoin etf
Analyst Predicts 4 Month Altseason as Fed Rate Cuts and M2 Money Supply Rise
Crypto Analyst Predicts Parabolic Altseason Within 4-6 Months Amid Key Market Catalysts
Crypto analyst @Ashcryptoreal has forecasted a potential parabolic altseason within the next four to six months. In a post on X dated October 26, 2025, the analyst highlighted that the total cryptocurrency market cap remains in a bullish trend, with panic sellers currently being flushed out ahead of the next major price movement.
### Macro Factors Supporting a Bullish Outlook
Several macroeconomic developments are aligning to support this optimistic forecast:
– **Expanding M2 Money Supply:** Historically, an increasing M2 money supply correlates with more liquidity flowing into risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
– **Federal Reserve Policy Shift:** The Fed is expected to end its quantitative tightening phase and possibly begin quantitative easing. Additionally, three to four interest rate cuts are anticipated within the next six months, which typically lowers borrowing costs and encourages institutional investment into crypto markets.
– **Strong Equities Market:** US equities are reaching all-time highs, signaling broader market optimism.
– **Gold Market Capitalization:** Gold’s market cap has soared to $30 trillion, potentially triggering capital rotation into Bitcoin. Investors often view Bitcoin as a digital alternative to gold, a pattern observed in previous market cycles where Bitcoin rallied after gold hit peak valuations.
– **Pending Altcoin ETFs:** There are currently 155 altcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings awaiting approval. These could be greenlit following a resolution to a potential government shutdown, paralleling the impactful Bitcoin ETF market entries earlier in 2025.
### Why Has Altseason Been Delayed?
Despite Bitcoin’s impressive 8.5x price increase from its November 2022 bottom of $15,400 to around $126,000, most altcoins have lagged behind. Only a select few, such as ONDO, FET, SUI, SOL, and BNB, have hit new all-time highs during the current cycle.
Ethereum, a key market barometer, hit its previous all-time high near $4,800 in Q3 2025 and touched around $4,900 in recent trading. Market analysts stress that Ethereum must decisively break and hold above the $5,000 mark before a true altseason can begin.
Investor caution remains high due to ongoing trade war tensions and tariff concerns throughout 2025. This uncertainty has pushed liquidity toward safer assets like gold, bonds, and top-tier stocks, delaying broader crypto market participation.
### Market Conditions Favoring Risk Assets
The present market setup closely resembles the patterns seen during the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. Typically, safer assets rally first, building trader confidence before liquidity gradually shifts toward riskier investments.
The flow of capital generally moves from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and then from large-cap altcoins to smaller-cap altcoins. With expected rate cuts, the end of quantitative tightening, and an easier monetary policy stance, liquidity is likely to return to risk assets — potentially propelling Bitcoin to new highs, followed by Ethereum.
Once Ethereum convincingly surpasses $5,000, analysts anticipate renewed capital inflows into altcoins.
### On-Chain and Sentiment Indicators
– **Bitcoin:** On-chain data shows a 15% increase in Bitcoin transfers to long-term holding wallets, indicating strong conviction among major holders. Trading volumes on leading exchanges reflect increased whale accumulation activity.
– **Ethereum:** The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers around 55, signaling neutral momentum and leaving room for upward price movement without overbought pressure.
– **Market Sentiment:** Overall sentiment is shifting toward greed as these bullish catalysts emerge.
Bitcoin currently faces resistance at $70,000; a breakout above this key level could confirm the onset of a parabolic phase. Support levels have been identified around $60,000 for Bitcoin and $2,500 for Ethereum, which may serve as attractive entry points during potential market dips.
### The Impact of Altcoin ETFs
The substantial filing of 155 altcoin ETFs represents a significant development for the crypto market. If approved, these ETFs could have a transformative impact similar to the Bitcoin ETFs that drove billions of dollars in inflows earlier this year.
Altcoins such as Solana and Avalanche may experience increased volatility, with price swings exceeding 10% following positive regulatory or market news.
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In summary, with multiple macroeconomic factors aligning, easing monetary policies, growing institutional interest, and anticipated Ethereum price breakthroughs, the cryptocurrency market appears poised for a robust altseason within the next half-year according to analyst @Ashcryptoreal’s outlook. Investors should watch key price levels and regulatory developments closely for the next phase of market growth.
https://coincentral.com/analyst-predicts-4-month-altseason-as-fed-rate-cuts-and-m2-money-supply-rise/