EUR/USD is pulling back from highs above 1. 1600, but keeps most of its weekly gains, trading at 1. 1585 at the time of writing on Thursday. Growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will ease its monetary policy further over the coming months is weighing on the US Dollar, while hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine have supported the common currency this week. Economic data released on Wednesday revealed a larger-than-expected increase in US Durable Goods Orders and a decline in weekly Initial Jobless Claims, but that did not alter the view that the US central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points after their December meeting. Beyond that, rumours that White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett an open dove will replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair after the end of his term in May, cement hopes that the bank will cut rates at least two or three more times in 2026. Trading volumes are expected to remain subdued on Thursday, with US markets closed for the Thanksgiving bank holiday. During the European session, however, the Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence index and the minutes of the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy meeting might provide some guidance for the Euro (EUR). Monetary policy divergence is weighing on the US Dollar While most of the world’s major central banks are at the end of their easing cycles, the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by at least a full point in the next 12 months. Unless this context changes radically, prospects of a lower yield are likely to weigh heavily on speculative demand for the US Dollar. On the macroeconomic front, December’s German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey has shown a moderate improvement to -23. 2, from -24. 1 in November. The impact on the Euro, however, has been marginal. On Wednesday, US Durable Goods Orders data showed a 0. 5% growth in September, following an upwardly revised 3% growth in August, and beating expectations of a 0. 3% increase. Excluding transportation, orders for all other products grew 0. 6%, higher than the 0. 2% market consensus. Apart from that, weekly US Initial Jobless Claims declined to a seven-month low of 216, 000 in the week of November 22, from 222, 000 in the previous week, against expectations of a moderate increase to 225, 000 claims. The focus on Thursday will be on the Eurozone’s final Consumer Confidence Index, which is expected to confirm a -14. 2 reading in November, unchanged from October. Later in the day, the ECB will release the minutes of its October 30 monetary policy meeting, when the central bank’s committee agreed to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the 2. 0% level. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD met resistance above 1. 1600 The EUR/USD pair is on a bullish trend from the 1. 1500 area, but the top of the descending channel from early October highs, now around 1. 1620, is likely to pose a significant resistance for Euro bulls. Technical indicators are positive, the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading near the 60 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps trending higher above the zero line. Bulls, however, will have to breach trendline resistance above the mentioned 1. 1620 to confirm a trend shift and aim towards the October 28 and 29 highs, near 1. 1670, and the October 17 high, near 1. 1730. On the downside, immediate support is at the previous resistance level of 1. 1550 (around November 21 and 24 highs). Further down, the 1. 1500 psychological level and the November 5 lows, near 1. 1470, will provide support before the channel bottom, now around 1. 1420.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/finance/eur-usd-eases-from-weekly-highs-as-the-us-dollar-picks-up/
Tag Archives: macroeconomic
Quarterly profit slide at Target hints at a challenging holiday season for the retailer
By ANNE D’INNOCENZIO NEW YORK (AP) Target’s third-quarter profit tumbled as the retailer struggles to lure shoppers that are being pressed by stubbornly high inflation. The Minneapolis company said Wednesday that it expects its sales slump to extend through the critical holiday shopping season. The company also announced that it’s planning to invest another billion dollars next year to remodel stores, build new ones, increasing the total cost for the makeover to $5 billion. Investors have punished Target’s stock recently, sending it down 43% over the past year. Shares were essentially flat in early trading Wednesday. Turning around the 19% profit slide in the most recent quarter is the latest challenge for incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke, a 20-year company veteran who is replacing CEO Brian Cornell in February. The handover arrives as the retailer tries to reverse a persistent sales malaise and to revive its reputation as the place to go for affordable but stylish products. Comparable sales those from established physical stores and online channels dipped 2. 7% in its latest three-month period. That’s worse then the 1. 9% drop in the previous quarter and the third straight quarterly decline. Target’s troubles stand in stark contrast to rival Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, which is thriving. Walmart reports on its most recent quarterly performance Thursday. Target announced in October that it was eliminating about 1, 800 corporate positions to streamline decision-making and accelerate company initiatives. The cuts represent about 8% of Target’s corporate workforce. To pump up sales, Target is offering more than 20, 000 new items, twice as many as last year, and it has lowered prices on thousands of groceries and other essential items. “The environment around us continues to evolve, whether it’s shifting consumer demand, changing competitor dynamics, or broader macroeconomic pressures,” Fiddelke said on an earnings call Wednesday. ”But let me be clear. We are not waiting for conditions to improve. We are driving the change ourselves right now.” With about 1, 980 U. S. stores, Target has struggled to find its footing since inflation caused Americans to curtail much of their discretionary spending. At the same time, Target customers have complained of messy stores lacking the budget-priced niche that long ago earned the retailer the nickname “Tarzhay.” Consumer boycotts since late January, when Target joined rival Walmart and a number of other prominent American brands in scaling back its corporate diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, have compounded the predicament. Other, more recent macro headwinds, are buffeting the entire retail sector. For almost a year, retailers have struggled to navigate President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs on imports and his immigration crackdown that threatened to shrink the supply of workers available to U. S. companies. The just ended 43-day federal shutdown is expected to be another drag on an economy. Government contract awards have slowed and many food aid recipients have seen their benefits interrupted, both of which can cut into consumer spending at places like Target. Fiddelke told reporters that the company saw a weaker September but he said it was “tricky for us to isolate” the different factors behind that. The retailer’s profit fell to $689 million in the three-month period ended Nov. 1, or $1. 51 per share. Adjusted per share results added up to $1. 78. That is better than the $1. 71 that Wall Street was expecting, according to a poll by FactSet, but below the $1. 85 per share the company earned in the same period last year. Sales fell 1. 5% to $25. 27 billion, just shy of analyst projections. Sales gains in food and beverages were offset by continued weakness in discretionary goods, with anxious shoppers focused increasingly on buying essentials, even during the holidays. For example, customers this year customers bought candy and costumes for Halloween, but spent less on decorations, said Rick Gomez, chief commercial officer for Target. Gomez thinks they will make similar tradeoffs during the winter holiday season. “We think the consumer will prioritize what goes under the tree versus what goes on the tree,” he said. Target also announced a partnership with OpenAI on Wednesday that will let users browse Target items through the tech company’s app ChatGPT. When customers are ready to buy, they’ll be directed to the Target app. For the fourth quarter, Target expects that comparable sales will decline by low single digits. For the full year, it now expects earnings per share to be in the $7 per share to $8 per share range, down from its earlier forecast of $7 to $9.
https://www.courant.com/2025/11/19/target-results/
U.S. Government Shutdown Halts September Jobs Report Release
Government Shutdown Delays September Jobs Report, Increasing Market Uncertainty
The release of the September Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report has been postponed until the U.S. government reopens, according to a statement from the White House. This delay introduces additional market uncertainty, particularly impacting crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as traders await possible effects on Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Government Shutdown Impacts Financial Reporting and Crypto Markets
The White House confirmed that the release date for the September BLS jobs report will be rescheduled following the government reopening. While routine reports such as the Job Openings Survey continue despite the delay, no public statement has been given explaining the cause or outlining a solution for the postponement. Nevertheless, the market widely acknowledges the impact.
Delays in essential economic data generate uncertainty for investors and traders. Market participants in the cryptocurrency space, who heavily rely on macroeconomic indicators, can expect increased price volatility—especially in Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives—amid speculation surrounding Federal Reserve decisions.
In response, market actors are adopting temporary strategies to navigate the potential shifts in Fed rate policies. Reactions across the cryptocurrency sector emphasize the likelihood of heightened volatility. Public commentary from prominent industry figures remains scarce, possibly reflecting the high sensitivity of these markets to U.S. macroeconomic data, with direct implications for assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Historical Context, Price Data, and Expert Analysis
It’s worth noting that previous U.S. government shutdowns in 2013 and 2018 also delayed BLS report releases, causing short-lived volatility spikes in both crypto and equity markets.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $101,694.71, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.03 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. The price has decreased by 1.44% in the past 24 hours and dropped about 14.14% over the last 90 days. Out of a maximum supply of 21 million BTC, around 19,947,975 are presently in circulation.
These market fluctuations underscore the sensitive interplay between government data releases and crypto asset valuations during periods of political uncertainty.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/tech/u-s-government-shutdown-halts-september-jobs-report-release/
Magnite, Inc. (MGNI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Magnite Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Nick in Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
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**Nick Kormeluk
VP of Investor Relations & Head of Global Real Estate**
Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Magnite’s Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
Joining me on the call today are Michael Barrett, CEO; and David Day, our CFO.
I would like to point out that we have posted financial highlight slides on our Investor Relations website to accompany today’s presentation.
Before we get started, I will remind you that our prepared remarks and answers to questions will include information that may be considered forward-looking statements. These include, but are not limited to, statements concerning our anticipated financial performance and strategic objectives, including the potential impact of macroeconomic factors on our business.
Please note that these statements are not guarantees of future performance. They reflect our current views with respect to future events and are based on assumptions and estimates, and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors.
—
Thank you, and with that, I will turn the call over to Michael Barrett, CEO.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4838867-magnite-inc-mgni-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed_all_articles
Silver retreats as US Dollar gains, Fed stance pressure prices
Silver (XAG/USD) declined on Tuesday, trading around $47.70 per ounce, down 1.10% on the day. This drop came after the metal attempted to extend its recent rally beyond the $49.50 level but faced increasing selling pressure.
The rise in the US Dollar (USD) is a key factor behind Silver’s decline. The dollar gained strength amid growing expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have recently adopted a firmer tone. Powell notably mentioned that another rate cut in December “is not a given,” which has influenced market sentiment.
Currently, markets price in roughly a 65% chance of an interest rate reduction at the December Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This cautious Fed stance is supporting the US Dollar and limiting gains for non-yielding assets like Silver.
Meanwhile, the US economy faces hurdles due to the ongoing budget stalemate in Washington. The partial government shutdown has entered its sixth week, potentially becoming the longest in US history if it continues. The shutdown may delay the release of key economic indicators, such as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, adding to macroeconomic uncertainty.
In addition to domestic concerns, investors are closely monitoring persistent geopolitical and trade tensions. These issues keep demand for safe-haven assets alive, providing some defensive support to Silver and helping to limit the extent of its recent correction. The metal’s recent gains had been fueled by hopes that the Fed might resume monetary easing if economic risks increase.
**Silver Technical Analysis: Faces Resistance Near $49.40 Amid Potential Double-Top Setup**
On the 4-hour chart, Silver is encountering resistance in the $49.40 region, near the previous peak recorded on October 23 at $49.46. This has formed a potential double-top pattern.
A rejection from this resistance zone could trigger a deeper bearish correction, potentially exposing the October 28 low at $45.56. A break below this level, which serves as the neckline of the double-top formation, would open the door to a more pronounced decline with a projected target around $41.80.
On the upside, a break above the $49.40 resistance would bring the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart into focus. The 100-period SMA currently rests at $49.80. Should Silver manage to surpass this level, further gains could see it testing the recent all-time high at $54.86.
The 100-period SMA is mildly downward-sloping, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 50 level, both of which underscore mounting bearish momentum in the short term.
Overall, Silver faces headwinds from a stronger US Dollar and cautious Fed outlook but continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should monitor key technical levels closely as the metal navigates this critical resistance zone.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/finance/silver-retreats-as-us-dollar-gains-fed-stance-pressure-prices/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=silver-retreats-as-us-dollar-gains-fed-stance-pressure-prices
Red Uptober: Why Bitcoin Just Had Its Worst October in Years
Despite a roaring start and a fresh all-time high early in October, the anticipated “Uptober” turned into a real downer for Bitcoin. The leading cryptocurrency sank to levels unseen in four months, disappointing many investors.
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin’s price recently stood at $109,820 per coin—about 13% below its October 6 record of $126,080. Over a 30-day period, the asset is down by more than 8%.
Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, earning the nickname “Uptober.” Data from CoinGlass shows that over the past 10 years, there has been only one monthly loss in October, back in 2018. However, this October broke a six-year streak of gains, showing a 3.69% drop from the start to the end of the month.
The plunge during this traditionally strong month coincided with unsettling macroeconomic conditions. These include concerns about liquidity and diminishing prospects of a third interest rate cut that investors had been eagerly anticipating.
On Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that a rate reduction was “not a foregone conclusion.” This announcement sent digital assets into a tailspin, causing Bitcoin’s price to dip below $106,000 at one point.
Earlier in the month, Bitcoin and other risk-on assets tumbled after U.S. President Donald Trump re-escalated his trade war with China, raising further concerns about the global economy. As a result, investors liquidated more than $19 billion in positions, with nearly 90% of them being long positions anticipating price increases.
Juan Leon, Senior Investment Strategist at Bitwise, told Decrypt that the negative October returns could be attributed to a convergence of three primary factors: a powerful macroeconomic shock, a fragile internal market structure, and a subsequent lukewarm monetary policy signal. He added that the crash on October 11 had a long-term effect on the market.
In her “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter, analyst Noelle Acheson wrote that “the reset of rate cut expectations” continued to weigh on cryptocurrency prices. She noted Powell’s acknowledgment that liquidity conditions have been tightening. While liquidity isn’t yet near crisis levels relative to bank reserves, Bitcoin remains one of the more sensitive assets to these liquidity changes.
Acheson explained, “Equities have earnings and other factors impacting their appeal, and bonds have fiscal and economic growth. Bitcoin doesn’t—it’s pure sentiment, which in the short term is affected by monetary liquidity and in the long term by the supply/demand balance.”
Earlier in the week, in a Telegram exchange with Decrypt, Acheson also pointed out increased selling by long-term Bitcoin holders. This trend could reflect their belief that Bitcoin has peaked in its latest four-year cycle—the timeframe historically defining crypto market rhythms.
She wrote, “If you still believe in the BTC four-year cycle (and many old-timers probably do), then we’re at the peak if you map previous cycle patterns.”
Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and stocks have typically performed well in a low-interest-rate environment. The Federal Reserve has cut rates in its last two meetings. Historically, Bitcoin climbed nearly 11% last October and almost 29% in October 2023. In 2021, it surged a whopping 40% during the same month. On average, the digital coin has delivered investors returns of nearly 20% in October, according to CoinGlass.
“This makes this feel like one of the weakest ‘Uptober’ performances in years,” said pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn in an interview with Decrypt. He noted that the decline was not the result of a single broad selloff but largely driven by selling during U.S. trading hours. Additional factors included China tariffs and unfavorable economic data such as unemployment figures, consumer price index, and producer price index readings in recent months.
Despite the struggles, some analysts remain optimistic. Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, told Decrypt that the long list of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) the SEC is expected to approve could provide support to the market. He also highlighted that the regulatory environment remains favorable for digital assets.
“With bipartisan market structure legislation back on track and several altcoin exchange-traded products set to launch, we expect that the crypto market setback will be short-lived,” Pandl said.
So, will it be “Moonvember” for Bitcoin? Last year, November brought an impressive 37% price spike for BTC—something investors would no doubt be thankful to see again. Only time will tell if November can deliver a strong rebound after a disappointing October.
https://decrypt.co/347060/red-uptober-why-bitcoin-worst-october-years