The upcoming U.S. inflation data could prove to be a defining moment for XRP price prediction. Forecasters expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise to 3.1% year-over-year — the highest in nearly a year and a half. When combined with the Federal Reserve’s plan to cut rates despite climbing prices, this mix of rising inflation and easier monetary policy could create an unusual trading environment.

In this article, we’ll break down what this means for XRP and how the chart is hinting at the next possible move.

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### XRP Price Prediction: Is Inflation Pressure Good or Bad for XRP?

Cryptocurrencies generally benefit when real interest rates fall. If inflation rises but the Fed still cuts rates, real yields decline, and risk assets like XRP tend to get a boost.

However, the market’s confidence in the Fed’s control over inflation is crucial. If investors start believing inflation is getting out of hand, the U.S. dollar could strengthen in the short term, creating a headwind for XRP’s dollar pair (XRP/USD).

The FRED inflation chart tracks the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers excluding food and energy. It clearly shows inflation peaking near 6.5% in 2022 before steadily falling through 2023 and early 2024. However, since mid-2025, the curve has flattened and begun to turn slightly upward again, reflecting the recent reacceleration driven by tariffs and supply-side costs.

This subtle uptick signals that the inflation cooldown phase may be over, raising concerns that the U.S. economy is entering a new period of sticky inflation — a development that could shape how crypto assets like XRP respond to macroeconomic data in the coming weeks.

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### Inflation Forecast and Economic Outlook

The Wells Fargo Weekly Domestic Indicator Forecast table shows that inflationary pressures are expected to stay firm, with both headline and core CPI forecasted to rise 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year.

These figures align with market consensus and suggest that inflation remains sticky despite slowing housing and consumer demand. Interestingly, Wells Fargo expects new home sales to drop from 800K to 764K, hinting that higher prices and economic uncertainty may be weighing on real estate activity.

Together, these numbers paint a picture of moderate inflation persistence combined with weakening demand momentum — an uneasy mix for policymakers and traders alike.

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### XRP Price Prediction: What the Chart Is Signaling Now

The XRP daily price chart currently shows clear bearish momentum. The price has been sliding along the lower Bollinger Band, hovering around $2.31. This behavior indicates persistent selling pressure without a clean reversal yet.

The mid-band (20-day simple moving average) sits near $2.70 and is now acting as resistance. Price rejection around this level would confirm the continuation of a short-term downtrend.

Recent long red Heikin Ashi candles followed by smaller-bodied ones suggest that selling exhaustion might be near, but it is not complete. Below current levels, the $2.20 zone provides immediate support. A decisive breakdown below this could send XRP toward the $2.00 mark, where psychological support might help stem further losses.

On the upside, XRP needs to close above $2.60 to attract renewed bullish momentum. Without that, the chart remains structurally weak.

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### Could the CPI Report Trigger a Reversal?

The CPI report due Friday could jolt volatility across crypto markets. If inflation prints exactly as expected or slightly lower (under 3.1%), markets will likely price in a stronger case for the Fed’s October rate cut.

In that scenario, XRP could push toward the $2.50 to $2.60 range in a relief rally.

However, if CPI surprises on the higher side — say 3.3% or more — traders may start doubting the Fed’s willingness to keep cutting rates amid sticky inflation. This could put renewed pressure on risk assets, sending XRP back below $2.20.

It’s a classic binary setup: soft inflation could lead to a short-term bullish reversal, while higher-than-expected inflation may result in continued downside.

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### Market Sentiment and Macro Backdrop

XRP’s fundamental narrative — including its ongoing legal clarity post-SEC ruling and growing use in cross-border settlements — remains intact. But for now, macro sentiment is the dominant driver.

A weakening labor market combined with higher inflation creates uncertainty, something traders usually dislike. Until there is more macro clarity, XRP could remain trapped in the $2.00 to $2.70 range.

Additionally, Bitcoin dominance has ticked higher over the past week, suggesting capital is rotating away from altcoins like XRP toward safer large-cap plays. This trend typically continues until major economic data surprises come in positively.

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### XRP Price Prediction: What Happens Next?

In the short term, XRP price is at an inflection point. The $2.20 to $2.40 zone will determine whether the next move is a deeper slide or a relief bounce.

**Bullish scenario:**
– CPI comes in at or below 3.1%
– The Fed maintains a dovish tone
– XRP could rebound toward the $2.60 to $2.70 range

**Bearish scenario:**
– CPI exceeds 3.2%
– Inflation fears dominate market sentiment
– XRP could revisit $2.00, or even dip to $1.85 before finding buyers

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Stay tuned for the CPI report and watch how XRP reacts — it could set the tone for the next big move in the crypto markets.
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