If there is a strategy behind recent U.S. actions regarding Venezuela, it is not entirely clear. Perhaps there is one, but it has yet to be fully articulated. A good strategy always begins with clear goals. So, what exactly is the U.S. trying to achieve?
There seem to be at least two possibilities — and of course, it could be both.
One potential goal is removing Nicolás Maduro from power. Maduro has long been an anti-American dictator, detrimental both to Venezuela and the United States. The second possibility focuses on border security and stopping narco-trafficking.
### What Are the Major Steps?
The most prominent recent military development has been the buildup of forces. Is this solely about striking drug-carrying vessels? It appears to be more than that.
If the objective is to remove Maduro, is the expectation that he might self-deport? Senators Rick Scott and Lindsey Graham have floated similar ideas publicly, suggesting Maduro should go to Russia or China.
Alternatively, could this buildup be a preparation for strikes on Venezuelan mainland targets, possibly even Maduro himself? The U.S. has traditionally maintained a policy against assassinating foreign leaders, but President Trump seems willing to break norms.
The President has stated his top priority is stopping the flow of illicit drugs into the United States. In the Caribbean, countries like Trinidad and Tobago have been supportive of strikes on vessels suspected of drug trafficking.
### Signaling to the Region and Beyond
This posture is also a signal to other countries in the region and globally, demonstrating how serious this administration is about security and drug interdiction. The U.S. has increased pressure on other countries in the hemisphere, such as Colombia, which faced sanctions and was decertified as cooperative with the U.S. on drug-control efforts due to policy disagreements with President Gustavo Petro.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, from his Senate days, has been very clear: he wants to see Maduro removed. For Rubio, given his Cuban heritage, this is deeply personal—the rise of dictators and the erosion of civil liberties in Venezuela resonates strongly.
### Maduro’s Days May Be Numbered
As the President mentioned on *60 Minutes*, he wants Maduro gone and sees his days as numbered. However, the question remains: to what extent is the U.S. willing to go to advance Maduro’s removal?
It is expected there will be limited strikes on Venezuelan territory linked to illicit drug activities.
Across the region, Maduro is widely seen as a destabilizing force. Venezuela’s economic collapse, political repression, and erosion of rights have created the largest mass migration crisis the Western Hemisphere has seen. The crisis impacts not only the U.S. southern border but also countries like Chile, which are experiencing unprecedented migrant influxes.
### Focus on the Western Hemisphere in the National Defense Strategy
There are indications that the Western Hemisphere will receive more emphasis in the Trump administration’s forthcoming National Defense Strategy (NDS) than in previous versions. Security and stability in the hemisphere arguably require Maduro’s removal, as his regime contributes to regional instability.
Every national defense strategy underscores the importance of homeland defense, and for this administration, the Western Hemisphere is priority number one, with the Indo-Pacific and China following.
This increased focus is evident in the unique military buildup in the region, unlike anything seen in years.
### Differing Views Within the Administration
Within the administration, there appear to be different camps with varying views on Venezuela.
Secretary Rubio and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan represent voices seeking Maduro’s removal. Conversely, members of the “MAGA restraint” camp prioritize border security and drug interdiction, and are wary of direct military conflict with Venezuela. This camp is wary of costly, protracted military interventions, having criticized past U.S. involvements in Iraq and Afghanistan.
For now, these camps agree on applying increased pressure against Venezuela, but there is no clear, coherent strategy that everyone supports.
### Peace Through Strength: The Administration’s Approach
President Trump has often used the phrase “peace through strength,” emphasizing deterrence over extended military campaigns. He is skeptical of drawn-out wars like those in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Ukraine, but open to short, sharp, and decisive actions.
Examples include the strikes against Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and operations targeting Iran’s nuclear program.
In this context, limited strikes against drug infrastructure in Venezuela or possibly regime targets align with this approach. However, a full-scale, boots-on-the-ground regime-change operation—akin to Panama or Grenada—is unlikely under this administration.
### Maduro’s Grip on Power
Historically, attempts to overthrow Maduro have been quickly suppressed. Cuban agents embedded within the Venezuelan military provide early warnings, and the regime has fractured military communications to prevent mass uprisings.
Maduro maintains control partly through illicit activities—drug trafficking, illegal gold mining, arms dealing, and human smuggling—which enrich the regime and key military figures.
If U.S. efforts can significantly degrade these illicit enterprises, Maduro’s financial resources to maintain loyalty among generals may diminish, potentially encouraging military leaders to consider alternative futures.
### Unique Context and Democratic Alternatives
Unlike other countries targeted for U.S. intervention without clear democratic successors, Venezuela has established opposition leaders waiting in the wings.
A presidential election a year ago reportedly elected Edmundo González (according to publicly available vote data), who currently lives in exile. María Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, remains active within Venezuela, fighting for the democratic government elected last year.
Venezuela’s vast natural resources and oil reserves also offer key economic potential that could support stability.
### Offers to Leave and the Importance of Democratic Transition
Maduro has reportedly offered to leave power, but those offers have been rejected by the U.S. administration. If Maduro does step down, it is crucial to prevent a henchman from simply taking over.
Robust support exists for Venezuela’s democratic opposition, but it is equally important to make clear to the Venezuelan military that their future depends on supporting a transition grounded in democratic principles.
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In summary, while the U.S. objectives regarding Venezuela seem focused on both removing Maduro and combating narcotics trafficking, a fully-fledged, unified strategy remains elusive. What is clear is an increased emphasis on security in the Western Hemisphere and willingness to apply pressure through military and diplomatic means short of full-scale intervention. The future course will likely balance these elements while remaining mindful of regional dynamics and the complexities of Venezuelan politics.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-expert-conversation-whats-trumps-endgame-in-venezuela/
