In recent weeks, Donald Trump’s supporters have increasingly aligned around the idea that a Democrat-led “grand conspiracy” – potentially involving former president Barack Obama – has been plotting against the US president since 2016. According to this narrative, the 2016 Russia investigation, which resulted in the Mueller inquiry, was part of a deep-state opposition to Trump, as was the investigation into the January 6 riot at the US Capitol.
### The Fightback in Miami
The current focus of this pushback by Trump’s supporters is Miami, where a Trump-appointed US attorney, Jason A. Reding Quiñones, has started issuing subpoenas to a wide range of former officials.
Among those subpoenaed are former CIA director John Brennan, former FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok, former FBI attorney Lisa Page, and former director of national intelligence James Clapper. All were involved in the federal investigation into alleged links between Russian intelligence and Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.
### A Familiar Narrative
The way this so-called conspiracy is unfolding will feel familiar to anyone who has closely followed US politics over the past decade. There has been a constant stream of allegations and counter-allegations. However, the narrative from the Trump camp is that powerful “deep state” forces have been arrayed against the president.
This has created the belief in a “two-tier” justice system – one that has persecuted Trump — and that it can only be rebalanced by pursuing those who investigated him in 2017 and 2021.
### Parallels with Other Conspiracy Theories
The “Grand Conspiracy” narrative shares similarities with other prominent conspiracy theories and how they spread. Take, for example, the QAnon movement, which is best known for its claim of a global pedophile ring run out of a Washington pizza parlor involving senior Democrats. QAnon features disparate claims that are sporadically and partially evidenced.
The political power of these claims does not lie in the individual pieces of evidence but in the overarching story: that hidden government and proxy networks manipulate truth and judicial outcomes. According to believers, only through pressure from “truthers” (a term used by many US conspiracy theorists to describe themselves) will wrongdoers be brought to justice.
Once these ideas gain popularity, they develop a momentum and direction that can be very difficult to control.
### Campaign of ‘Lawfare’
Soon after his inauguration, Trump established a “weaponization working group” within the Department of Justice. Its director, Ed Martin, stated in May that he would expose and discredit people he believes to be guilty, even if the evidence isn’t sufficient to charge them:
> “If they can be charged, we’ll charge them. But if they can’t be charged, we will name them. And we will name them, and in a culture that respects shame, they should be people that are ashamed.”
Historically, in the US, the norm has been to “charge crimes, not people.” This approach represents a fundamental shift in prosecutorial focus.
The recent subpoenas in Florida demonstrate this principle in action, effectively turning legal processes into a form of punishment. Even without full court hearings or specific charges, being compelled to provide testimony or documents creates suspicion around those targeted.
Legal officials have criticized this approach as an “indict first, investigate second” method, highlighting it as a break from established norms.
### What is Lawfare?
“Lawfare” is defined as “legal action undertaken as part of a hostile campaign.” Successful prosecution is not necessarily the goal. Instead, enough investigative activity is used to solidify a narrative of suspected guilt, imposing costs and pressure that seriously inconvenience those targeted.
In today’s digital media era, lawfare can be enough to degrade the standing of a political opponent without a conviction.
Consequently, political retaliation has effectively become a prosecutorial objective. This is evident from the US president’s frequent social media posts targeting enemies such as former FBI director James Comey, who investigated his alleged links to Russia, or Adam Schiff, the senator who led his impeachment in 2019.
### Hardball Politics or Authoritarianism?
Political scientists warn that authoritarianism often progresses incrementally. Some of these steps include using state power to target political opponents, weakening checks and balances, and enforcing loyalty as a legal requirement.
There are reasons to believe the United States may currently be on this trajectory. This is notably seen in the use of the Justice Department to harass political enemies, efforts to resist court rulings, and public attacks on the judges who have made those rulings.
Further slides toward authoritarianism remain a possibility, intensified by the political strength of contemporary conspiracy movements. For example, the right-wing QAnon movement has been remarkably agile, providing its followers with identity, community spaces, and a logic that encourages active participation — prompting believers to “do your own research.”
### The Epstein Effect
In the wake of ongoing revelations from investigations into the late financier Jeffrey Epstein, who allegedly ran a sex trafficking ring involving influential US citizens, many Americans have come to see the idea that elites hide wrongdoing as a given truth.
This general mistrust facilitates the spread of larger conspiracies and makes it harder for politicians and journalists to distinguish between conspiracy and evidence.
This dynamic creates a problematic feedback loop: hints of wrongdoing fuel public suspicion, and public suspicion drives calls for further investigation.
### A Movement That Can Consume Its Own
It’s important to note that no single entity controls these movements. They can just as easily consume supporters as their enemies.
For example, Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s push to release the full, unredacted Epstein files could have negative consequences for some MAGA supporters, including prominent figures.
### A Drift Toward Authoritarianism
The transformation of legal processes into public spectacles in America suggests a drift toward authoritarianism.
The nation’s famed “constitutional guardrails” — including separation of powers, independent courts, juries, and counsels — will be pivotal in preventing this drift. These institutions must stand firm.
The grand conspiracy theory may ultimately be less about uncovering truth and more about isolating, financially and emotionally exhausting opponents, while simultaneously dismantling America’s system of checks and balances. And, disturbingly, it might be effective.
—
*Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security & Dean of Faculty, University of Hull*
*This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.*
https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-s-grand-conspiracy-theory-begins-to-take-shape-and-it-might-work/
